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After netting nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his most impressive beginning to a season - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him three strikes clear in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early in the season.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has currently registered - and, just as importantly, the quantity and caliber of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the modest opening his typical competitors for the prize have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

And if we look at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this term from open play, the Scandinavian attacker is receiving significantly more quality chances to convert than anyone else.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than every other footballer in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as the remainder of the league.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by examining the number and quality of scoring situations that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

Interestingly, this is not that remarkable for him - he had in fact attempted more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this term. His shots have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to score on average - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 per shot is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the chances he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the beginning of last season.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so powerfully is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had scored 10 goals - four more than every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. Upon reviewing at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the remaining ten footballers combined so far.

Whether because of injuries - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their sides have underperformed (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the Continental scoring award that is awarded to the player with the most goals in the continent's elite divisions?

That competition is considerably more open at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes each.

The reality Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the top chance quality metric of the three despite not attempting any spot-kicks renders him the favourite.

Yet given that Kane and Mbappe are among the finest goal-scorers in European football in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the competition remains open.