🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been seized. A single trader, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just under 7% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other traders also earned large payouts from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on recently aims to prohibit public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to predict everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."