Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
